DAX Daily Outlook October 8, 2024

DAX Continues on Consolidation Course

In Asian trading, the DAX has lost ground again after yesterday's calm session. The German leading index has fallen significantly below the 19,000-point mark. At 04:40 AM CET, it was trading at 18,902 points, testing the "big figure." Several factors are cited for the further decline: On the one hand, the persistently weak economic data burdening Germany, and on the other hand, weak cues from the USA. Asian markets also provide mixed signals.

Chinese markets are starting with a real surge after the Golden Week. Mainland stock exchanges gained between 3% and 7% in the early morning hours. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong is an exception, dropping by 1,450 points or 5.76%. The reason for today's weakness is the declining tech stocks. The Japanese Nikkei 225 also lost significant ground, down 645 points or 1.63%. Thus, the Asian signals are anything but homogeneous.

The strong prices in China are due to recent economic stimulus measures and an upcoming meeting of officials to draft another subsidy package to further support the recent financial injections.

DAX Today

From a technical perspective, the medium-term outlook for the DAX has changed since last night. The support at 18,965 points was broken, so the way is initially clear to 18,841 points. If this level also does not hold, further decline to 18,695 points is likely. Whether this scenario will occur today remains to be seen. However, a deterioration in the stock market outlook is clearly noticeable. The economic environment in Germany and Europe is increasingly worsening. Hardly a day goes by without bad economic news. Even though the DAX is not directly linked to the German economy, DAX companies are affected by the German framework conditions. Up to a certain point, this remains invisible, but this threshold is currently being crossed. A good example of this might be the VW Group.

We expect a weaker start for the DAX today. We aim to use a brief recovery for a short entry, as we see the DAX well below the 18,900-point mark during the course of the day.

Economic Calendar Today (Filtered):

CET

00:00 USD: FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

01:30 AUD: Westpac Consumer Confidence

01:30 JPY: Household Spending (MoM) (Aug)

01:30 JPY: Overall Wage Income of Employees (Aug)

01:50 JPY: Current Account s.a. (Aug)

02:30 AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

02:30 AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes

02:30 AUD: NAB Business Confidence (Sep)

06:30 EUR: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) (Sep)

08:00 EUR: German Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)

08:45 EUR: French Current Account (Aug)

08:45 EUR: Exports (Aug)

08:45 EUR: Imports (Aug)

12:00 EUR: ECOFIN Meetings

12:00 EUR: Eurogroup Meetings

14:30 USD: Trade Balance (Aug)

14:30 CAD: Trade Balance (Aug)

14:55 USD: Redbook Index (YoY)

18:45 USD: FOMC Member Bostic Speaks