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AutorenbildDaniel Fehring

DAX Daily Outlook October 10, 2024

DAX Waiting for US-Dream Constellation

 



The financial world has been dominated by one topic over the last two days: the US CPI (Consumer Price Index). The strong job market data from last Friday has made analysts a bit puzzled. It was almost a given that US rate cuts would continue in large and swift steps, but this assumption has now been overturned. However, today the markets could be reassured again. If wishes could be expressed, the dream constellation should occur: a falling CPI to an inflation rate of 2.3% and, in addition, a rise in initial jobless claims. This would mean that inflation is under control and interest rates can be cut. Additionally, a slight increase in unemployment numbers would make a rate cut necessary. This "wishful thinking" was already celebrated yesterday and could continue today at 2:30 PM CET when the US data is released.

 

The DAX was already under the influence of the US Wall Street yesterday and was able to continue gaining in after-hours trading. The high level was then effortlessly defended in Asian trading. At 7:10 AM CET, the DAX was trading at 19,289 points. This is certainly due to the generally friendly to firm trend in Asia. The Chinese mainland stock exchanges continue with extreme volatility and are again in the firm range today. The China A 50 Index rose by 512 points or 3.78%. However, the leader today is the Hang Seng in Hong Kong with a plus of 879 points or 4.26%. The Japanese Nikkei, on the other hand, was a bit calmer, rising "only" 123 points or 0.28%.

 

DAX Today

 

We expect a steady to well-supported start for the DAX today. Trading in the first half of the day is expected to be calm at a high level. Then, at 2:30 PM, the cat will be out of the bag, and volatility will increase sharply. We will not position ourselves from the start unless the DAX surprisingly drops sharply in the morning. In that case, we would look for a long entry. We assume that the dream constellation will occur, and therefore we will place a very deep buy limit in the market just before the data and hope that it will be triggered during the first zigzag movement. If the price runs upwards from the start, then we were too cautious, but responsible with our capital. The short side is not an option for us today.


Economic Calendar Today (Filtered):

CET

 

01:50 JPY: Corporate Goods Price Index (Month) (Sep)

02:00 AUD: MI Inflation Expectations

13:30 EUR: ECB Meeting Minutes

14:30 USD: Core Consumer Price Index (Month) (Sep)

14:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims

14:30 USD: Real Earnings (Month) (Sep)

20:00 USD: Budget Balance (Sep)

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